Revised Offer on House #5

My original offer on house #5 was $86k (low) and $96k (high). After doing more research, I think this house is a real bargain at an even higher offer price. Let me explain ...

The subject house is in a still-developing subdivision. It was built in 2002, and has a warranty deed signed August/2002 with a note for $154,523. Now, prices in the area have actually dropped over the last few years, but only by about 1-2%/yr (definately not 22%+ in 2.5 years as the list price would indicate). Brand new comparable homes in the same subdivision are selling for $68-$69/sf, and likeable homes on the same street are selling for about $75/sf. Using a worse case scenario and even taking 10% off that price would yield:

90% of (2,472sf x $68/sf) = $151,286

Now, going further, I took ANOTHER $6k off that price to make the ARV price $145,000. My exit strategy would probably be either flip retail or L/O. If I flip retail and get a 100% loan @8%, I'd be paying about $1,300/month in holding costs (which includes tax, insurance, utilities, HOA, PMI). Selling costs of 8% would then leave me with an after-sell profit of $14,000 if sold immediately, or almost $8k if held for 6 months.

Again this is using a VERY conservative ARV price and an offer price the same as the list price. I figure with the are growing over the last 6-9 months, and an expansion continuing for a while, this house could probably sell within 6 months for $160k+ easy, making the profit exceedingly higher.

I will be going out there today with my RE agent to assess the inside, but from what I could tell this is a real clean house (the kitchen even has a fridge that looks brand new and corian countertops). From what I saw peeking in the windows on the first floor, the carpets and walls look to be in great shape.